The Other McCain has just been called that, by some douche at Alternet, which I never read because no one should have to
We are looking at a very tight race right now, with a virtual tie in national polling. But we don’t elect presidents by popular vote, and Obama has enjoyed a lead in the race to get 270 votes in the Electoral College every single day of this campaign – Romney has never led in any of the Electoral College projections.
But in recent days, the Romney-Ryan campaign has claimed that it’s moving ahead. As Jonathan Chait noted, “This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Despite zero evidence that Romney has made any gains since receiving a healthy bounce from the first debate, reporters appear to be buying it, with a raft of lazy stories about Mitt Romney’s supposed “momentum.”
Well, the thing is, Joshua, Romney has been gaining in the swing states, he does have the momentum, that is pretty clear. The question is why are you so distressed? Maybe tour status as an Obama pom-pom Girl is being threatened? Whatever the case, Joshua decides to write this about Stacy, with no “E” Joshua, McCain
Robert Stacey McCain, a notably dense right-wing blogger who nonetheless holds some influence in conservative circles, framed it like this: “Nate Silver continues to lead the Democrat Graveyard Whistling Choir, raising Obama to a 70.3% likelihood of victory based on . . . what? I dunno. I’m not an expert with a New York Times column or anything, much less a Magical Forecasting Model™ that can divine future events with the precise scientific exactitude of 1/10 of one percent.”
Now Joshua, Mr. McCain is more than capable of defending himself from you and your pom-poms. My problem is not even that you are a pompous ass, who, like most pompous asses, is about half as smart as you think you are. My issue is not that you are a Left-Wing nutcase who has partaken heavily on the Obama flavored Kool-Aid. My issue, rather, is that you could at least have bothered to note that I, too, took Nate Silver to the woodshed for his unrealistic “predictions”. See, Joshua, I have an ego, and it is greatly pleased when a Leftist like you, attacks me. It reaffirms my belief that I am right on the issues. It is a badge of honor to be labelled by an Obambot like you.
And, by the way, I do not have a model for predicting, but, when I look at poll after poll showing Romney winning independents, and erasing gender gaps, and increased excitement among Republican voters and gaining, or leading in several key states, states that DO count in the Electoral College, well……let’s just say I put more stock in those than in a guy who uses outdated polls, as a commenter at The Other McCain noted
Back to the question, then: What the f–k is Nate Silver talking about? A commenter on yesterday’s post suggested it’s non-random ”weighting”:
I found out everything I needed to know about Silver’s “analysis” when I learned that he was overweighting a week-old PPP poll that showed Obama well ahead and underweighting a fresh poll *by the same pollster* that had Obama’s lead almost gone in his “model.” The adjustments were not small. So he was purposefully and consciously giving a large amount of additional weight to old data compared to new data despite the source of both being the same.
This statistical legerdemain is justified by an ipse dixit assertion that PPP’s Dem lean has diminished over the cycle (a change he would have us believe has significant, observable effects over a 7-day period). Then there’s the grotesquely Obama-positive Marist poll to which he gave a huge statistical bump compared to a slew of more recent data for almost two weeks. That poll had a D+11 sample–over twice Obama’s 2008 ID edge and therefore something no rational poll observer could possibly argue with a straight face was likely to be valid. Nate loved it, though, giving it massively outsized influence over his overall results long after it was stale data.
See what you could know Joshua, if you not so much “smarter” than those “ignorant” right wing bloggers!