Results Of March 15th GOP Primaries/Caucuses – Poll Projections Included For Purpose Of Comparison


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MARCH 15TH

POLL PROJECTIONS (Combined Averages For Florida, Illinois, Missouri. North Carolina And Ohio)
Donald Trump: 37.5%
Ted Cruz: 24.8%
John Kasich: 16.8%
Marco Rubio: 12.0%

RESULTS (March 15, 2016)
Donald Trump
Total Votes: 3,190,482
Average Percentage: 42.5%
States Won: FL, IL, NC And MO
Delegates Won: 216

John Kasich
Total Votes: 1,739,720
Average Percentage: 19.2%
States Won: OH
Delegates Won: 80

Ted Cruz
Total Votes: 1,653,239
Average Percentage: 25.6%
States Won: None
Delegates Won: 51

Marco Rubio
Total Votes: 961,306
Average Percentage: 10.5%
States Won: None
Delegates Won: 6

Total Delegate Allocation Since Iowa
Donald Trump: 673
Ted Cruz: 411
Marco Rubio: 169
John Kasich: 143

Total Vote Count Since Iowa
Donald Trump: 7,541,464
Ted Cruz: 5,479,989
Marco Rubio: 3,392,133
John Kasich: 2,721,254

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Results Of March 8th GOP Primaries/Caucuses – Poll Projections Included For Purpose Of Comparison


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MARCH 8TH

POLL PROJECTIONS (Combined Averages For Michigan, Mississippi, Hawaii And Idaho)
Donald Trump: 36.9%
Ted Cruz: 18.4%
Marco Rubio: 16.6%
John Kasich: 10.1%

RESULTS (March 8, 2016)
Donald Trump
Total Votes: 740,467
Average Percentage: 38.6%
States Won: HI, MI And MS
Delegates Won: 71

Ted Cruz
Total Votes: 580,146
Average Percentage: 34.9%
States Won: ID
Delegates Won: 56

John Kasich
Total Votes: 373,917
Average Percentage: 15.3%
States Won: None
Delegates Won: 17

Marco Rubio
Total Votes: 180,813
Average Percentage: 10.8%
States Won: None
Delegates Won: 0

Total Delegate Allocation Since Iowa
Donald Trump: 458
Ted Cruz: 359
Marco Rubio: 151
John Kasich: 54

Total Vote Count Since Iowa
Donald Trump: 4,344,542
Ted Cruz: 3,579,114
Marco Rubio: 2,426,859
John Kasich: 1,088,248

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Results Of March 5th GOP Primaries/Caucuses – Poll Projections Included For Purpose Of Comparison


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MARCH 5TH

POLL PROJECTIONS (Combined Averages For Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana And Maine)
Donald Trump: 37.3%
Ted Cruz: 20.9%
Marco Rubio: 17.7%
John Kasich: 8.2%

RESULTS (March 5, 2016)
Ted Cruz
Total Votes: 230,209
Average Percentage: 40.9%
States Won: KS And ME
Delegates Won: 64

Donald Trump
Total Votes: 230,453
Average Percentage: 33.3%
States Won: KY And LA
Delegates Won: 49

Marco Rubio
Total Votes: 85,035
Average Percentage: 13.6%
States Won: None
Delegates Won: 13

John Kasich
Total Votes: 62,541
Average Percentage: 10.9%
States Won: None
Delegates Won: 9

Total Delegate Allocation Since Iowa
Donald Trump: 378
Ted Cruz: 295
Marco Rubio: 123
John Kasich: 34

Total Vote Count Since Iowa
Donald Trump: 3,603,634
Ted Cruz: 3,003,166
Marco Rubio: 2,221,583
John Kasich: 714,488

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Results Of GOP Super Tuesday Primaries/Caucuses – Poll Projections Included For Purpose Of Comparison


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SUPER TUESDAY

POLL PROJECTIONS (Combined Averages For Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont And Virginia)
Donald Trump: 30.1%
Ted Cruz: 20.1%
Marco Rubio: 18.9%
Ben Carson: 9.4%
John Kasich: 6.6%

RESULTS (March 1, 2016)
Donald Trump
Total Votes: 2,952,964
Average Percentage: 34.6%
States Won: AL, AR, GA, MA, TN, VT, VA
Delegates Won: 237

Ted Cruz
Total Votes: 2,507,233
Average Percentage: 25.4%
States Won: AK, OK, TX
Delegates Won: 209

Marco Rubio
Total Votes: 1,879,467
Average Percentage: 23.0%
States Won: MN
Delegates Won: 94

John Kasich
Total Votes: 544,649
Average Percentage: 8.6%
States Won: None
Delegates Won: 19

Ben Carson
Total Votes: 494,281
Average Percentage: 6.5%
States Won: None
Delegates Won: 3

Total Delegate Allocation Since Iowa
Donald Trump: 319
Ted Cruz: 226
Marco Rubio: 110
John Kasich: 25
Ben Carson: 8

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Results Of Early GOP Primaries/Caucuses – Poll Projections Included For Purpose Of Comparison


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IOWA

POLL PROJECTIONS (Average As Of January 31, 2016)
Donald Trump: 28.6%
Ted Cruz: 23.9%
Marco Rubio: 16.9%
Ben Carson: 7.7%
Jeb Bush: 4.1%
John Kasich: 2.9%
Carly Fiorina: 2.6%
Chris Christie: 2.4%

RESULTS (February 1, 2016)
Ted Cruz: Votes – 51,666 (27.6%) —— Delegates Won: 8
Donald Trump: Votes – 45,429 (24.3%) —— Delegates Won: 7
Marco Rubio: Votes – 43,228 (23.1%) —— Delegates Won: 7
Ben Carson: Votes – 17,394 (9.3%) —— Delegates Won: 3
Jeb Bush: Votes – 5,238 (2.8%) —— Delegates Won: 1
Carly Fiorina: Votes – 3,485 (1.8%) —— Delegates Won: 1
John Kasich: Votes – 3,474 (1.8%) —— Delegates Won: 1
Chris Christie: Votes – 3,284 (1.7%) —— Delegates Won: 0

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

POLL PROJECTIONS (Average As Of February 4, 2016)
Donald Trump: 31.2%
Marco Rubio: 14.0%
John Kasich: 13.5%
Ted Cruz: 11.8%
Jeb Bush: 11.5%
Chris Christie: 5.8%
Carly Fiorina: 4.8%
Ben Carson: 2.8%

RESULTS (February 9, 2016)
Donald Trump: Votes – 100,406 (35.3%) —— Delegates Won: 10
John Kasich: Votes – 44,909 (15.8%) —— Delegates Won: 4
Ted Cruz: Votes – 33,189 (11.7%) —— Delegates Won: 3
Jeb Bush: Votes – 31,310 (11.0%) —— Delegates Won: 3
Marco Rubio: Votes – 30,032 (10.6%) —— Delegates Won: 3
Chris Christie: Votes – 21,069 (7.4%) —— Delegates Won: 0
Carly Fiorina: Votes – 10,967 (4.17%) —— Delegates Won: 0
Ben Carson: Votes – 5,969 (2.27%) —— Delegates Won: 0

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SOUTH CAROLINA

POLL PROJECTIONS (Average As Of February 18, 2016)
Donald Trump: 32.9%
Ted Cruz: 18.1%
Marco Rubio: 17.1%
Jeb Bush: 10.5%
John Kasich: 10.0%
Ben Carson: 6.9%

RESULTS (February 20, 2016)
Donald Trump: 239,851 (32.5%) —— Delegates Won: 50
Marco Rubio: 165,881 (22.5%) —— Delegates Won: 0
Ted Cruz: 164,790 (22.3%) —— Delegates Won: 0
Jeb Bush: 57,863 (7.8%) —— Delegates Won: 0
John Kasich: 56,206 (7.6%) —— Delegates Won: 0
Ben Carson: 53,326 (7.2%) —— Delegates Won: 0

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NEVADA

POLL PROJECTIONS (Average As Of February 15, 2015)
Donald Trump: 42.0%
Ted Cruz: 20.0%
Marco Rubio: 19.0%
John Kasich: 7.0%
Ben Carson: 6.0%

RESULTS (February 23, 2016)
Donald Trump: 34,531 (45.9%) —— Delegates Won: 14
Marco Rubio: 17,940 (23.9%) —— Delegates Won: 7
Ted Cruz: 16,079 (21.4%) —— Delegates Won: 6
Ben Carson: 3,619 (4.8%) —— Delegates Won: 1
John Kasich: 2,709 (3.6%) —— Delegates Won: 1

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Total Delegate Allocation So Far
Donald Trump: 81
Marco Rubio: 17
Ted Cruz: 17
John Kasich: 6
Ben Carson: 4

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Poll: Nearly 60 Percent Of Democrats Are Clinically Insane

Poll: Almost 60 Percent Of Democrats Think Socialism Is Great For America – Daily Caller

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A clear majority of Democrats believe socialism has a “positive impact on society,” according to a poll by the American Action Forum (AAF).

The political and economic system that wreaks havoc across the world from Venezuela to North Korea is enjoying widespread support in the modern Democratic Party.

A telephone poll of 1,000 likely Democratic primary voters found that when capitalism and socialism were polled head to head, socialism won by 15 percentage points, with just 25 percent of respondents saying they favored capitalism.

In terms of definition, the poll made clear that socialism meant a greater role for government in the economy and substantial wealth redistribution, but the idea itself was not clearly defined by its traditional meaning as government ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange.

But despite some haziness around precise wording, there was no doubt that the number of Democrats who favored a totally socialised healthcare system far outstripped those who favored retaining a private model of healthcare.

Not only are Democrats far to the left of mainstream America on the question of socialism and health care but they are also largely suspicious of how the media covers hot button issues such as racial equality on campus.

More than two-thirds of those surveyed agreed with the statement “most of the media in our country is controlled by corporations who are more interested in profits than telling the truth. Before a corporate owned media entity covers a campus rally for racial equality, they should first prove that they are not biased against the content of the rally.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders’s decision to stand for the Democratic nomination on a platform of democratic socialism has sparked furious debate over what socialism means and whether it has a place in 21st century America. AFF’s poll suggests there’s a wide reservoir of support for many of the policies Sanders advocates.

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Quinnipiac Poll: Ben Carson Tops Hillary Clinton By 10 Points – Jeb Bush In The Toilet

Poll: Carson Beats Clinton By 10 Points, Tied Among Women Voters – Big Government

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The latest Quinnipiac poll, arriving one year before Election Day, shows all of the top Republican candidates except Donald Trump running ahead of Hillary Clinton.

Dr. Ben Carson, who is effectively tied with Trump as the GOP front-runner in the poll, wallops Clinton by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent. Sen. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) beats Clinton 46 percent to 41 percent, as does GOv. Chris Christie. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) beats her 46 percent to 43 percent.

But Clinton has a 3-point edge over Donald Trump in the poll, 46 percent to 43 percent.

Interestingly, the second tier among primary voters is also a virtual tie between Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. No other Republican candidate was able to score over 3 percent, and quite a few of them fell below 1 percent to become asterisks.

Qunnipiac finds the Republican contenders lined up as follows:

Trump at 24 percent and Carson at 23 percent.

Rubio at 14 percent and Cruz at 13 percent

Jeb Bush 4 percent, Chris Christie 3 percent, Carly Fiorina 3 percent, John Kasich 3 percent, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) 2 percent, Mike Huckabee 1 percent and Rick Santorum 1 percent.

No other candidate scored high enough to be counted at 1 percent in the poll.

Tim Mallow, Qunnipiac’s assistant director described Carson’s lead over Clinton as a contest of character. “Clinton gets crushed on character issues, pounded by Carson and closely challenged by Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio,” he said.

Also noteworthy is that Carson is effectively tied with Clinton among women. Women were split 45 percent to 44 percent for Carson versus Clinton.

As with other recent polls, Quinnipiac found Clinton’s approval rating underwater with registered voters, 42 percent favorable to 52 percent unfavorable. She scores especially badly on the “honesty” metric, 36 percent to 60 percent.

Conversely, Carson has a tremendous favorable rating, 49 percent to 25 percent, with a sizable 25 percent saying they haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion. His plus-24 approval spread is the best in the field, followed by plus-14 for Rubio and plus-10 for Fiorina.

Carson’s biggest weakness, unsurprisingly, comes from voters who worry that he “does not have the right kind of experience to be President.”

That seems like a much easier problem for his campaign to address than Clinton’s baked-in honesty deficit, especially since honesty and trustworthiness were rated as the most important attributes overall. Carson also scores best among all candidates in the “cares about my needs and problems” category, which is scored as the second most important attribute this time around, and was seen as perhaps the most important in the 2012 election. Clinton is underwater on this metric as well, at 44 percent to 53 percent.

The lowest approval rating among candidates in the Q-poll was held by Jeb Bush, whose 25 percent to 58 percent score gave him a Titanic-like minus-33 rating.

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Ben Carson Overtakes The Donald In Newest National Poll – Up By 14 Points In Iowa

Ben Carson Now Leads Republican Race Nationwide – Daily Caller

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A new national poll of Republican primary voters indicates that Ben Carson has taken a small lead in the race for the party’s presidential nomination, knocking Donald Trump from a position he has held for months.

Twenty-six percent of likely voters say Carson is their top pick for the nomination, four points ahead of Trump at 22 percent. The poll, conducted by CBS and The New York Times, has shown Trump on top ever since it began surveying voters last July. Out of more than 30 polls tracked on the website RealClearPolitics, this is only the second since early July that doesn’t have Trump in the top spot. The news comes on the heels of a poll giving Carson a big 14-point lead in Iowa, whose caucuses kick off the primary season.

No other Republicans are in double digits in the new poll. Marco Rubio is third with 8 percent support, followed by Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina with 7 percent apiece. Every other candidate is clustered at 4 percent or less.

Carson’s rise is based on picking up more support from just about all groups, but his core base still shows substantial differences with Trump’s. Carson has amassed tremendous support among evangelical voters, who support him over Trump by more than 20 percentage points. Carson is also more popular with women than men, and attracts more conservatives, while Trump appeals more to moderates and those without a college degree.

Carson’s lead could be quite unstable, though. Only 19 percent of his supports say they are firmly committed to backing him, while more than half of Trump’s supporters say the same, meaning the business mogul likely has a firmer base on which to rely.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 21-25 and had a sample size of 575 Republican primary voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 6 percentage points.

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Carson Opens Up 14-Point Lead Over Trump In Iowa – The Hill

Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, surging to a 14-point lead, according to a new poll.

A Monmouth University survey released on Monday found Carson taking 32 percent support in Iowa, followed by Trump at 18 percent.

That’s a 9-point gain for Carson from the same poll in late August, while Trump has fallen five points in that time.

The poll found Carson with the best favorability rating in the field, with an astounding 84 percent of Iowa Republicans having a positive view of him, compared to only 7 percent who view him negatively.

Trump’s favorability rating is at 53 percent positive and 38 percent negative. His favorability rating is essentially unchanged from late August, although the percentage of those who view him unfavorably has increased by 5 points in that time.

Trump has led in nearly every poll of Iowa since early August, but the Monmouth survey is the third recent poll to show Carson with a healthy lead over the field in the Hawkeye State.

A Des Moines Register-Bloomberg poll released last week showed Carson with a 9 point lead, and a Quinnipiac University survey found Carson ahead by 8.

Carson is ahead among all demographic groups in Iowa, according to Monmouth. He leads among Republicans who describe themselves as “somewhat” and “very conservative,” as well as self-described moderates.

Carson also leads among evangelicals, non-evangelicals, men and women in the poll.

“Trump’s support has eroded in a number of key areas, with the beneficiary being another outside candidate,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “One question is how secure Carson’s new found support really is.”

Only 19 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers said they have made up their minds on whom to support, giving hope to lower polling candidates.

Rounding out the field are Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), at 10 percent each, and Jeb Bush at 8 percent.

Businesswoman Carly Fiorina take 5 percent support in the poll. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is at 3 percent, while Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal and John Kasich each take 2 percent support.

Outsider candidates such as Trump and Carson, though, appear to have the advantage based on the deep anti-establishment sentiment among likely caucus-goers. Fifty-seven percent said the Republican Party has done a bad job representing their views.

“While the leader board positions have changed, the outsider candidates still dominate this race,” said Murray. “The GOP’s leadership may hope that an establishment figure will emerge, but that may not happen while their voters remain dissatisfied with the party as a whole.”

Bush, Kasich, Paul and Christie are the only candidates with negative favorability ratings in Iowa, according to the poll.

The Monmouth University survey of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted Oct. 22-25 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

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The Donald Is Not Going To Like This

Donald Trump Falls: Ben Carson Surges To Lead In Poll – Investor’s Business Daily

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Donald Trump has boasted that he’s “leading every poll and in most cases big.” Not anymore. The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows him in second place, seven points behind Ben Carson.

The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump.

Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided.

The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.

The October poll, conducted from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1, included 377 registered voters who are Republican or registered independents who lean toward the Republican Party, with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Peak Trump?

Other polls show Trump’s support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling from 30.5% in mid-September to 23.3% by the end of the month. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings.

“Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD’s monthly poll. “In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump’s boycott of Fox News may have set him back,” Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump’s self-imposed hiatus.

When asked on CNBC about his slipping poll numbers, Trump said that “if I fell behind badly, I would certainly get out.”

Carson’s gain comes after his controversial remarks on “Meet the Press” that he couldn’t support a Muslim for president.

Rubio’s third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won that debate, has been unable to capitalize on it with Republicans.

Hillary Clinton Leads Dems

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is the top pick of 42% of 344 registered Democrats or those leaning Democratic. Vice President Joe Biden is second at 22%, even though he has yet to announce whether he plans to run.

Bernie Sanders is backed by 18% of Democrats. Sanders’ strongest support is among those 18-24, of whom 48% back the self-identified socialist, while only 14% back Clinton.

Other October poll findings:

57% of those following the Hillary Clinton email scandal say she should drop out of the presidential race if the FBI determines that she sent or received classified emails on her private email server while secretary of state. Among Democrats, 75% say she should stay in.

53% of those following the refugee crisis oppose bringing 185,000 refugees fleeing the Middle East into the U.S., and 63% say Congress should first OK any plans to admit the refugees.

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Gallup Poll: 75% Of U.S. Citizens See Widespread Government Corruption

75% In U.S. See Widespread Government Corruption – Gallup

Three in four Americans (75%) last year perceived corruption as widespread in the country’s government. This figure is up from two in three in 2007 (67%) and 2009 (66%).

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While the numbers have fluctuated slightly since 2007, the trend has been largely stable since 2010. However, the percentage of U.S. adults who see corruption as pervasive has never been less than a majority in the past decade, which has had no shortage of controversies from the U.S. Justice Department’s firings of U.S. attorneys to the IRS scandal.

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These figures are higher than some might expect, and while the lack of improvement is somewhat disconcerting, the positive takeaway is that Americans still feel fairly free to criticize their government. This is not the case in some parts of the world. Questions about corruption are so sensitive in some countries that even if Gallup is allowed to ask them, the results may reflect residents’ reluctance to disparage their government. This is particularly true in countries where media freedom is restricted.

This is why it is most appropriate to look at perceptions of corruption through such lenses as the Freedom House’s Press Freedom rankings. Ratings vary among countries with a “free press,” including the U.S., and range from a high of 90% in Lithuania to a low of 14% in Sweden. The U.S. does not make the top 10 list, but notably, it is not far from it.

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These data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 U.S. adults each year, aged 15 and older, conducted between 2007 and 2014. For results based on the total sample of national adults in the U.S., the margin of sampling error has typically been ±4.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

For results based on the total sample of national adults across the 134 countries surveyed in 2014, the margin of sampling error ranged from ±2.1 percentage points to ±5.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For more complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review Gallup’s Country Data Set details.

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Your Daley Gator Post-GOP Debate Poll


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Your Daley Gator Election 2016 Poll O’ The Week


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CNN/ORC National Poll: The Donald Jumps 8 Points To 32% – Ben Carson Up 10 Points To 19%

New National Poll Shows Trump And Carson Surging To The Top Of GOP Field- Right Scoop

A new CNN/ORC national poll has come out with Donald Trump surging 8 points to an all time high of 32% in this poll. It also shows Carson surging 10 points to a very strong second place with 19%.

You’ll also note Bush has tumbled 4 points down to 9% with Cruz gaining 2 points back to 7%:

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Read the full poll here.

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The Donald Pulls Away From Pack In Latest Poll – Gingrich Weighs In On Race

Latest National Poll: Donald Trump Crushes Field With 36% Support, No-One Even Close – Conservative Treehouse

With favorables improving, unfavorables decreasing and two-thirds of the electorate now believing Trump can win the nomination, the latest YouGov National Poll shows Donald Trump dominating the rest of the field.

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This is the eighth consecutive regional and national poll with Jeb Bush in single digits; a devastating reality for the RNC/GOPe machine.

The debate this week will be their final opportunity to save Jeb – the pressure is astronomical, and you can guarantee Fiorina and Rubio will be called upon to deliver the goods and take out Trump.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, doesn’t even need the debate. Full poll results here.

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Septuagenarian Socialist Nutcase Pulls Within 7 Points Of Wicked Witch Of Benghazi In Iowa

Sanders Closes To 7 Points Behind Clinton In New Iowa Poll – CNN

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Bernie Sanders continues to cut into Hillary Clinton’s once-commanding lead among Iowa Democrats, closing to just 7 points of the party front-runner in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, a new poll has found.

A survey released late Saturday afternoon by the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics finds that Sanders, the fiery progressive senator from Vermont, trails Clinton 37% to 30%. The former secretary of state has lost one-third of her supporters since May.

Sanders’ support owes more to voters’ enthusiasm for his candidacy than opposition to Clinton, the poll found. A whopping 96% of his backers say they support him and his ideas, with just 2% saying their vote is motivated by a desire to stop a Clinton candidacy. As for the controversy surrounding Clinton’s use of email while leading the State Department, 61% of likely Democratic caucusgoers say the issue is not important to them.

Sanders has a deeper reservoir of support, the poll found. Thirty-nine percent of likely caucusgoers say their feelings about Sanders are very favorable, with just 8% having a negative view of him. That’s a sharp contrast to Clinton: 27% view her very favorably, but 19% view her negatively.

Saturday’s poll marks a remarkable eight-month climb for the self-proclaimed Democratic socialist from Vermont, who is garnering support in part from his anti-establishment rhetoric. Back in January, half of likely Democratic caucusgoers were unfamiliar with Sanders, and he was pulling in just 5% of support.

“What this new poll shows is that the more Iowans get to know Bernie, the better they like him and what he stands for. We’ve seen the same thing in New Hampshire and across the country,” Sanders campaign spokesman Michael Briggs said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden, who has not declared whether he’ll seek the Oval Office next year, captured 14% of the vote, easily distancing himself from former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (3%), former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb (2%) and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee (1%).

Speculation has heated up in recent weeks about whether Biden, 72, will join the race. He faces several obstacles in a potential run, including the need to raise enough campaign cash to compete with the Clinton machine and carving out enough support among key Democratic voting blocs. And he’s still grieving over the loss of his son, Beau Biden, who died of brain cancer three months ago; in a conference call with Democrats this week, Biden said he was still determining whether he had the “emotional fuel” to run.

But the vice president’s hesitation didn’t prevent his supporters from responding enthusiastically to Saturday’s poll.

“These results are the latest sign that voters respect and trust the Vice President and are looking for a candidate who speaks authentically and openly about the issues important to them,” according to a statement from “Draft Biden.” “They make clear the Vice President would have the support needed to mount a strong, competitive campaign.”

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New Monmouth Poll Shows Ben Carson Tied With The Donald In Iowa

Carson Ties Trump At The Top In Iowa Poll – Politico

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Ben Carson and Donald Trump are tied at the top of the Republican field in a new survey of likely Iowa caucus-goers with 23 percent each, according to the results of a Monmouth University poll released Monday.

The good news continues for the retired neurosurgeon with his favorability ratings, as 81 percent said they view him favorably, compared to just 6 percent who do not. And Trump’s favorability went up as well, at 52 percent to 33 percent, up from 47 percent and 35 percent last month.

Carson has steadily gained support over the summer despite keeping a relatively low profile, especially compared to Trump. But Carson, who has never held political office, has similarly tapped into a strong anti-Washington sentiment among voters.

In the poll released Monday, the two non-establishment candidates are followed by another, former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina with 10 percent. Following Fiorina are Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 9 percent, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 7 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 4 percent, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 3 percent. No other candidates registered more than 2 percent, including the last two winners of the caucus – former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (both at 2 percent).

The latest survey showed Carson making inroads on key voting blocs that Trump has been winning in recent polls. Women preferred Carson at 30 percent to 19 percent, while Trump did better with men voters, at 27 percent to 17 percent.

Among those identifying with the tea party, 27 percent pledged their support for Trump, compared to 22 percent for Carson, with Cruz behind with 16 percent. But Carson leads among non-tea-party-affiliated Republicans, taking 25 percent to Trump’s 19 percent.

Voters who described themselves as very or somewhat conservative were split between the top two, while moderate and liberals went for Trump at 26 percent, Fiorina at 18 percent and Carson at 17 percent.

Carson leads among Evangelical voters, earning 29 percent to Trump’s 23 percent, while non-Evangelicals backed Trump with 24 percent, followed by Carson at 18 percent and Fiorina at 13 percent.

Nearly a third of likely caucusgoers – 66 percent – said that the next president needs to be someone who can bring experience from outside of Washington, compared to 23 percent who indicated a preference toward candidates with government experience.

The survey was conducted Aug. 27-30, polling 405 likely caucus participants with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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Ben Carson Moves Within 5 Points Of Donald Trump In Latest Iowa Poll

Ben Carson Edging Close To Front-Runner Trump In Latest Iowa Poll – Bloomberg

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has emerged as a leading Republican presidential candidate in Iowa and is closing in on frontrunner Donald Trump in the state that hosts the first 2016 nomination balloting contest.

The latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows billionaire Trump with the support of 23 percent of likely Republican caucus participants, followed by Carson at 18 percent. When first and second choices are combined, Carson is tied with Trump.

Trump finds himself in a vastly better position than when the previous Iowa Poll was taken. He has become a credible presidential candidate to many likely Republican caucus-goers. The real estate mogul is rated favorably by 61 percent and unfavorably by 35 percent, an almost complete reversal since the Iowa Poll in May. He finds his highest ratings among those planning to attend the caucuses for the first time (69 percent) and limited-government Tea Party activists (73 percent). Just 29 percent say they could never vote for him, a number cut in half since May.

Although he isn’t generating the headlines enjoyed by Trump, Carson has quietly built a dedicated network of supporters in Iowa. During the past month, he also aired more ads than any other presidential candidate in Iowa. Carson has the highest favorability rating among Republican candidates, with 79 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers seeing him positively.

Those glowing views of Carson, who has a compelling life story and is seeking to become the nation’s second black president, could make it hard for Trump or other rivals to attack him as the campaign heats up this fall. Christian conservatives, who represent nearly 40 percent of likely caucus participants in the poll, may be starting to coalesce around the former director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins.

The poll displays the political benefit, at least for now, of not being part of the Republican establishment. When their totals are combined, Trump and Carson – two men without any elected experience – are backed by more than 4 in 10 likely caucus participants. Add in former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who also has never held elective office, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who is running an explicitly anti-establishment campaign, and the total reaches 54 percent of the likely electorate.

“Trump and Carson, one bombastic and the other sometimes soft-spoken, could hardly be more different in their outward presentations,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “Yet they’re both finding traction because they don’t seem like politicians and there’s a strong demand for that right now.”

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Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, the previous Iowa frontrunner, has been hurt the most by the Trump and Carson summer surges and is now backed by just 8 percent of likely caucus-goers, less than half what he recorded in the last Iowa Poll in late May. Cruz, who will need to cut into Carson’s support among social conservatives if he’s to advance in Iowa, is tied with Walker at 8 percent.

Jeb Bush, who continues to face major headwinds in Iowa, scored below Walker and Cruz. The former Florida governor is backed by just 6 percent, has one of the highest unfavorable ratings among the 17 Republican candidates tested, and has the support of just 16 percent of those who consider themselves business-oriented establishment Republicans, the group most central to his brand.

Bush’s fellow Floridian, Senator Marco Rubio, is also backed by 6 percent. He’s closely followed by Fiorina, who is supported by 5 percent after her strong showing in the Aug. 6 debate.

In the 2008 and 2012 Republican caucuses, Christian conservatives broke late in the race and helped determine the outcome in Iowa. While some of their leaders have expressed skepticism about the potential to unify behind one candidate in such a crowded race, there’s an opening for that. More than three-quarters of Christian conservatives in the poll say they could be convinced to back someone other than their first or second choice, if they could be assured that another Christian conservative would win.

At the moment, Carson is leading with voters in that bloc at 23 percent, followed by Trump at 16 percent and Cruz and Walker tied at third. If his competitors can successfully raise questions about Trump’s credentials as a Christian conservative, they could potentially peel off some of the front-runner’s support.

One major unknown for the caucuses is the size of the electorate, which has been around 120,000 on the Republican side for the past two Iowa caucuses. One of Trump’s campaign goals is to get thousands of new people to vote, a move that helped Barack Obama score an upset on the Democratic side in 2008.

First-time caucus-goers are clearly an important part of Trump’s Iowa base. Among those who say they’ll be attending for the first time, Trump is ahead of Carson, 28 percent to 20 percent.

For now, the poll suggests about a fifth of those attending the Feb. 1 precinct meetings will be doing so for the first time. That’s comparable to four years ago, when 24 percent said that on the Republican side in an October 2011 Iowa Poll.

Trump’s supporters in Iowa a have a higher level of trust in their candidate than others in the field to make the right decisions, if he makes it to the White House. Among all Republicans likely to attend the caucuses, 41 percent want their candidate to be clear about the specific policies they would address if elected, while 57 percent trust their candidate to figure it out once elected.

For Trump, nearly two-thirds of his supporters trust him to figure out the right decisions once in office. That’s in keeping with a claim he made to reporters Aug. 15, shortly after landing by helicopter outside the Iowa State Fair, saying it’s mostly the media that cares about policy papers and positions.

Among most of the subgroups measured in the poll, Trump has the advantage, although Carson beats him or comes close with several. Carson has an 11-percentage-point advantage over Trump among seniors and 7-percentage-point edge among Christian conservatives.

“I’m sick and tired of the political class,” said Lisa Pilch, 54, a middle school physical education teacher leaning toward Carson who lives in Springville, Iowa. “I just like his tone and think he’s someone who could pull us together, rather than the polarization we have right now. He has a lot of wisdom, even if he doesn’t have political savviness.”

While Carson is doing slightly better than Trump among women, the billionaire has the advantage among men, 28 percent to 17 percent.

“He’s got a no-nonsense approach,” said Patrick Messmore, 32, a construction equipment sales manager who lives near Grundy Center and plans to back Trump. “His history as a businessman is potentially a good change for our country, so that we don’t just have another life-time politician taking over as president.”

In some ways, Messmore sees Trump as an antidote to Bush. “I’m not OK with another Bush presidency,” he said. “We’ve had two of them now and I don’t see that there will be enough of a different approach than his dad or brother had. It’s just not something I’m interested in.”

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The poll shows Walker and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, especially, aren’t performing anywhere close to earlier expectations.

Paul, who was backed by just 4 percent, was perceived a year ago to have an advantage in Iowa, given the third-place finish in the 2012 caucuses recorded by his father, former Representative Ron Paul of Texas. In October, his favorable rating outweighed his unfavorable by nearly 3-to-1.

“Whatever advantage he had has eroded,” Selzer said. “Now, more Iowa caucus-goers have negative than positive feelings about him.”

For Walker, who has been in a slump since his lackluster debate performance, the poll is certain to further reduce expectations around his performance in Iowa, which had grown to the point where anything short of a win would have been viewed as a loss. One upside for him in the poll: Besides Carson, he’s the only candidate to exceed 70 percent in favorability.

Iowa Republicans are showing little interest in re-runs. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses, is at 4 percent. He’s followed at 2 percent by candidates who are governors, Chris Christie of New Jersey, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and John Kasich of Ohio.

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who narrowly beat eventual nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 caucuses, is backed by just 1 percent, the same level of support recorded by former Texas Governor Rick Perry, who is also struggling in his second White House bid even amid heavy spending in Iowa on the part of a super political action committee backing him.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, former New York Governor George Pataki and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore all recorded support of less than 1 percent.

The survey, taken Aug. 23-26, included 400 likely Republican caucus participants. On the full sample, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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Besides the nearly the nearly 40 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers who say Christian conservative is the best way to identify them, “business-oriented establishment Republicans” and Tea Party activists are roughly tied as the next largest groups, at 22 percent and 21 percent. Those who feel they are most closely aligned with the “liberty movement,” a bloc associated with Paul, represent only about 8 percent.

To offer another assessment of candidate strength – something difficult to divine in such a crowded field – Selzer created an index built on multiple measures in the poll. The index takes into account first and second choices, as well as a question that was asked on whether respondents could ever – or would never – support each candidate they didn’t name as their first or second pick. First choices were given double weight, while “ever support” was given a half weighting.

Using that system, Carson is narrowly ahead of Trump, 75 to 73. Walker comes next at 55, followed by Cruz at 53 and Rubio at 50. The index and never/ever question also show some of the candidates could struggle to expand their support. Nearly half of likely Republican caucus participants, 48 percent, say they could never support Christie. For Paul, it’s 43 percent and for Bush it’s 39 percent.

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Septuagenarian Socialist Nutcase Overtakes Wicked Witch Of Benghazi In Latest New Hampshire Poll

Poll: Bernie Leads Hillary In New Hampshire – Weekly Standard

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Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in a new poll of “usual” New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. According to Public Policy polling, a Democratic firm, Sanders has 42 percent support to Clinton’s 35 percent support.

The Vermont senator also has great favorability ratings among New Hampshire Democrats, with 78 percent viewing him favorably and just 12 percent viewing him unfavorably. Compare that to just 63 percent who say they have a favorable view of Clinton and 25 percent who say they have an unfavorable view.

PPP notes that Democrats of different ideological groups appear somewhat evenly split between Sanders and Clinton, but the former secretary of state is hurting among Democrats under the age of 65. Clinton leads with seniors, 51 percent to Sanders’s 34 percent, but Sanders does much better with younger voters, 45 percent to Clinton’s 29 percent.

This isn’t the first poll to show Sanders leading in New Hampshire, and according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Clinton’s lead in the Granite State has shrunk to just one point.

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The Donald Extends Lead In Latest GOP Candidates Poll – Carson A Distant Second

New National Poll: Donald Trump Has Biggest Lead Ever With Carson A Distant 2nd – Right Scoop

A new national poll out today by OANN and Gravis Marketing has Trump up to 40%, his YUGEST lead ever over his Republican contenders. Here’s how each candidate rated:

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While Carson’s lead more than doubled, he’s still a distant second place with the rest of the GOP field behind him. Jeb lost a bit as both Cruz and Fiorina gained.

Here’s the info on the poll:

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 3,567 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2%. The total may not equal exactly 100% due to rounding. The polls were conducted on August 21-22 using interactive voice response, IVR, technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented.

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Your Daley Gator Hillary Clinton Crime Spree News Roundup

Hillary’s State Department Routinely Hid Emails On Purpose – Big Government

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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s State Department routinely failed to preserve its own emails in order to intentionally hide them from official records.

Clinton-era email use at the State Department was fraught with widespread, intentional concealment, according to an October 2014-March 2015 semiannual report to Congress filed by the State Department’s office of inspector general (OIG).

Only a fraction of the messages sent by email were stored as “record emails,” according to the report.

“The review of the State Messaging and Archive Retrieval Toolset (SMART) and Record Email found that, out of the more than 1 billion emails sent in 2011, employees created just over 61,000 official emails; and they created even fewer – 41,000 – in 2013,” the inspector general found. “OIG recommended that the Department establish policies governing usage and that system designers engage with focus groups to enhance the system’s efficiency.” (p. vii)

Clinton’s administration did nothing to teach people how to store emails and oversaw the widespread cover-up of emails that should have been kept.

“A 2009 upgrade in the Department’s system facilitated the preservation of emails as official records. However, Department employees had not received adequate training or guidance on their responsibilities for using those systems to preserve ‘record emails,’” according to the OIG report.

“Record email usage varied widely across bureaus and missions. The Bureau of Administration needed to exercise central oversight of the use of the record email function. OIG found that some employees did not create record emails because they did not want to make the email available in searches or feared that this availability would inhibit debate about pending decisions.”

Former Secretary Clinton has turned over thumb drives and a private email server containing her emails from her tenure at the State Department. An inter-agency government task force led by the Department of Justice and the FBI is currently investigating how classified information ended up on Clinton’s server, and whether foreign agents were able to obtain any of the information on Clinton’s server.

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CNN National Security Analyst Unloads On Hillary Over Email Scandal: ‘I Wonder Whether She Is Capable Of Being President’ – Daily Caller

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Hillary Clinton’s email scandal should disqualify her from the Oval Office.

At least so says former CIA operative and CNN national security analyst Bob Baer, who is not known for being a political partisan.

“If this was on her server and it got into her smart phone, there’s a big problem there,” Baer said during an appearance on CNN International Saturday, noting that the sensitivity of the information reportedly found on Clinton’s private server was likely more secret than what Edward Snowden pilfered.

“Seriously, if I had sent a document like this over the open Internet I’d get fired the same day, escorted to the door and gone for good – and probably charged with mishandling classified information,” Baer said.

“If this in fact were on her hand held [phone] – was sent to her or she forwarded it in any way – I wonder whether she is capable of being president,” he added.

Pressed by the host as to whether he really thought this situation was a “deal breaker” for Clinton’s presidential candidacy, Baer said, “As a national security employee, a former one, yes.”

“I can’t tell you how bad this is,” he went on. “A lot of things get talked about, a lot of gossip, but having documents like this sent across the Internet, it could be hacked very easily and probably were hacked, is a transgression that I don’t think the president of the United States should be allowed to, you know, have committed.”

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Number Of Hillary Clinton’s Emails Flagged For Classified Data Grows To 60 As Review Continues – Washington Times

While media coverage has focused on a half-dozen of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s personal emails containing sensitive intelligence, the total number of her private emails identified by an ongoing State Department review as having contained classified data has ballooned to 60, officials told The Washington Times.

That figure is current through the end of July and is likely to grow as officials wade through a total of 30,000 work-related emails that passed through her personal email server, officials said. The process is expected to take months.

The 60 emails are among those that have been reviewed and cleared for release under the Freedom of Information Act as part of a open-records lawsuit. Some of the emails have multiple redactions for classified information.

Among the first 60 flagged emails, nearly all contained classified secrets at the lowest level of “confidential” and one contained information at the intermediate level of “secret,” officials told the Times.

Those 60 emails do not include two emails identified in recent days by Intelligence Community Inspector General I. Charles McCullough III as containing “top-secret” information possibly derived from Pentagon satellites, drones or intercepts, which is some of the nation’s most sensitive secrets.

State officials and the intelligence community are working to resolve questions about those and other emails with possible classified information, a process that isn’t likely to be completed until January.

That will be right around the time Mrs. Clinton is slated to face voters in the Iowa caucuses in her bid for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

As the number of suspect emails grows and the classification review continues, it is clear that predictions contained in a notification Mr. McCullough sent Congress this summer is likely to hold true: Mrs. Clinton’s personal emails likely contained hundreds of disclosures of classified information.

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How Did Hillary’s Lawyers Search A Server No Longer In Her Possession – Legal Insurrection

There is a time gap which may hold the key to Hillary’s hide-and-seek email game.

According to the Washington Post and other reporting, a Colorado server company obtained possession of Hillary’s server in 2013, transferred the data, leaving a blank server with no usable data at a storage facility in New Jersey.

Yet, in a letter filed on August 12, 2015 with the federal Court in the Judicial Watch FOIA litigation regarding Huma Abedin’s outside employment, Hillary’s lawyer, David Kendall. represented that Hillary did not ask counsel to review her emails until late 2014. [Full embed at bottom of post.] He also confirmed that the Colorado company has had possession of the original server since 2013.

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David Kendall letter Clinton Emails 8-12-2015 excerpt 2

So how could Hillary’s lawyers review a server no longer in Hillary’s possession, and which had been wiped clean?

It’s worth noting that at her March 10, 2015, UN press conference, when a reporter noted that some people suggested an independent review of the server, Hillary did not say that she no longer had the original server or that it had been wiped clean.

Instead, she said “the server will remain private.”

The server contains personal communications from my husband and me, and I believe I have met all of my responsibilities and the server will remain private…

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(transcript)

It is that original server that apparently has been turned over to the federal government. Plus a thumb drive, which purportedly only has work-related emails.

If the data was transferred to some other server, where is that one?

On Friday, August 14, 2015, the State Department is required to provide additional information to the Court.

Maybe that will shed some light.

But I’m not hopeful.

Judicial Watch Foia Case Huma Abedin – Defendant’s August 12, 2015 Status Report

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Fox Poll: Two Percent Of Voters Think Hillary Told The Truth About E-mail Server, And Only Three Percent Of Democrats – Hot Air

Six months ago, Hillary Clinton insisted that her private e-mail system contained no sensitive material, and that the federal government had no need of her server. With federal investigators trying to track down all of the records from her private e-mail server and revelations about Top Secret/compartmented material on her unauthorized system, Hillary’s public statements look like lies to a majority of those polled in the latest Fox News survey. In a poll of 1,008 registered voters, 58% say Hillary lied about the e-mails, and 54% believe she damaged national security:

A Fox News poll released Friday finds a 58 percent majority thinks Clinton “knowingly lied” when she announced in a March press conference that no emails on her private server contained classified information. A third says there is “another explanation” for internal government investigators determining secret info was in fact on Clinton’s server (33 percent).

Moreover, by a 54-37 percent margin, voters feel Clinton put our national security at risk by using a private email server.

The poll gave three options: Clinton lied, There’s another explanation, and Clinton told the truth. Only 2% overall think Hillary told the truth, a staggeringly bad number, and only 33% overall think there’s another explanation than Hillary lying. On option 3, the internals on this poll are instructive. The highest that Clinton told the truth polls in the demographics is 5% among black voters, where 63% choose another explanation. Among Democrats, the number is a whopping three percent. And among younger voters – who are presumably very familiar with e-mail – the “Hillary’s honest” option didn’t get enough responses to register.

Frankly, this question is designed to let respondents get off the hook for deciding whether Hillary lied or not. The middle option of another explanation implies incompetency – not exactly a good look for a presidential candidate – or some milder form of dishonesty. And yet, not many voters took the middle option. Self-described liberal, Democrats, and black voters all had majorities choosing the less-bad option, but almost none of them chose told the truth.

Instead, majorities in almost all other demos believe Hillary lied, even when given a softer option. Younger voters under 35 years of age were especially harsh on this judgment at 63/30/0, but the next age demo (35-54) was almost as dismissive, 61/31/2. In a rare show of consensus, those with (59/34/1) and without (58/33/2) college degrees agree on Hillary’s dishonesty. Two-thirds of independents believe she flat-out lied (67/23/2), and even a majority of women agree (51/40/2).

The responses to the question of harm to national security fall into the same pattern. This was presented as a yes/no, and 54% overall chose yes. The key demos all have yes majorities:

* Independents – 54/36
* Women – 50/40
* College degree – 53/38
* No college degree – 55/37
* 18-35YOs – 61/34

In other words, she’s rapidly approaching Richard Nixon levels of trust in, say, August 1973 or so.

A couple of other notes in the poll will have an indirect impact on Hillary, who’s going to be a continuity candidate based on her participation in the Obama administration. A recent trend toward the positive in Barack Obama’s job approval reversed itself in this poll, the first taken since the Iran deal was announced. He slid from a 46/46 in the beginning of July to 42/51, his worst showing since March. Voters want Congress to reject the Iran deal 31/58, and substantially more of them believe Iran can’t be trusted, 18/75, which is actually a slight improvement from the historical trend. With that hanging in the air, Hillary would have had trouble gaining trust from voters anyway – but the e-mail server scandal all but moots the point now.

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More August headlines:
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Exclusive: Hillary’s IT Contractor Did Not Have Proper Security Clearance – Daily Caller


The Countless Crimes Of Hillary Clinton: Special Prosecutor Needed Now – Sidney Powell


Tech Company Which Maintained Hillary’s Secret Server Was Sued For ‘Illegally Accessing’ Database And ‘Stealing White House Military Advisers’ Phone Numbers’ – Daily Mail


Hillary Clinton Emails Contained Signal Intelligence From Spy Satellites – Washington Times


*VIDEO* Judge Andrew Napolitano Describes Hillary Clinton’s Crimes


FBI Investigation Of Hillary’s Emails Is ‘Criminal Probe’ – New York Post


Judge Orders Hillary Clinton To Answer For ‘Home-Brew’ Server – Gateway Pundit

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